Covid 19 the future of Jobs and the population's demographic emergency 'reverse Tsunami.'

 

Covid 19 is one factor in the population's demographic emergency

Since 1960, 5 generations have had the ability to choose to have a family or not, the freedom of choice has significant implications for our future as a species. He's why...

Covid, Brexit and family planning have contributed to a 'reverse tsunami effect' on our society. Go back to my grandparents, from the Victorian and Edwardian eras and they usually came from families of anything from 5 + children from 2 parents, some were from 11 or 13 children families which was not uncommon.

Years ago, in a job I was in, the organisation found recruitment a problem, because the area had high housing costs and was not attracting the 20-35 year olds the business needed. This was the 1990s and the lack of humans to jobs is now becoming a real issue, even with the spread of automation. I conducted a straw poll about 10 years ago as an exercise of people I was at school with, I found that at least half had not had a family.

An analytical funnel graph - we can use this shape to 

easily illustrate the human generational declines by generation, below

In the above graph we can show the top blue area as the 1900-1920 generation, where many children in a family were possible. Green is the 1940's when due to the second world war, families were mostly 2 children. The 1950's and into the 1960's can be the orange and yellow bands, where the same 2 children average prevailed.

The grey last band is more transparent and shows how this era to the present day has changed the game. Here we see how many have chosen to avoid producing children for many reasons - they like their lifestyle, they like the freedom, they have exciting careers, environmental reasons and other reasons including housing costs.

In China, the 1 child policy has lead to 150 million males who will never marry or have a woman partner because males are usually first born and without a possible female as a second child, the deficit is obvious -  4 old people now rely on 1 young person.

The problem here is when the 1 does not reproduce and in time the recession in the nation's replacement people can lead to unviability. In China's case this will take many years.

For Britain, many EU citizens returned home, where wages have risen markedly in thrown countries since they came to Britain to live and work. Changes in immigration have deterred some new arrivals. The underlying problem is a general ageing working population.

A place I know has about 12 staff, 4 are under 40, the rest are over 45, most over 50 in this bracket. Recently, they advertised a job, it attracted over 30 applicants, 5 were invited to an interview and only 1 responded to that invitation. This is the second time they advertised the same job. 5 years ago the situation was different. 

In the UK since 1970 as a general datum point, successive young people not having families and 'replacing' at the least themselves has led to the UK having a reported less than 2 children per generation. Extrapolate this out ver 4 or more generations and you have a problem.

Automation has taken many jobs since 1960, but similarly, we are now seeing a population decline. A local rural primary school in my area has been under threat of closure for 15 years as the roll falls annually with few new pupils. You only have to see the empty seats on the small school bus going by to see how fragile the viability of that school is. Within 10 years I see this school closing due to lack of numbers.

This is worrying because these people are our future, if this pattern is repeated across the nation, we are in trouble. Obesity, other health issues like Covid, lack of population etc will all cull people, but without new people growing and replacing themselves, we are facing an uncertain future.

Automation is taking what were exclusive job roles - accountants, tax experts, solicitors as well as hitting the lower skilled and manual workers roles. But there is demand in some other jobs. An accountancy job attracted 200 + applicants, a social media role in the same company none.

The reverse Tsunami I talked about is coming - this is when the people 'wave' starts to fall back on itself, a situation I have identified with this term some years ago, the old fabric and structure collapses back on itself because the structure that should be behind it (people) is not there anymore.

We need to rethink our whole future as a species as a consequence!

Employers who fail to read CV's and covering letters properly - I could have been a contender!

Potential Employers who don't

You might see an ideal job advertised and think 'I can do that.'

So you get your CV ready and maybe adjust it to suit and write a really good covering letter.

You might be lucky and get an interview, or never hear from the company.

Recently, about 3 months ago, I applied for a job and sent the CV and covering letter, carefully outlining my relative experience to the role, including practical workshop and repair experience gained over eleven years.

I got a reply, thanks but no thanks.

Funnily enough, as things go, the job came up again 3 months later. So I applied again. This is often the case, an employer takes the least cost, least qualified option and finds a few months down the line they need to advertise the job again, rather than do the sensible thing.

Anyway, I saw the same job come up again, so I sent in the CV and covering letter. I had a contact from the company and phoned them up.

The person there I spoke to said the reason they had not interviewed me before was due to a lack of engineering experience. So I said I had eleven years of repairs, electrical, hydraulic and mechanical , all things this company dealt with.

It was obvious that the company had neither read the CV or letter properly, either time. It also became apparent that the CV reader had no technical experience themselves and had not looked to see what one thing they did not know about was. Not the first time I have had this.

It just makes me wonder, how many other jobs have I missed out on because people don't read the CV or covering letter properly?

The Black Economy - the Dickensian nightmare I predicted 10 plus years ago

Immigrants ultimately seeking a life in the UK

The reality is not what they think it is

Now Hear This. The unvarnished truth about something I predicted 10 years ago.

We were 'sold' a story by Government of the day

that we would need migrants to fill jobs

Back in the day, when Eastern European countries gained free movement, a swathe of people came to the UK to work. A few thousand was the estimate of the people that would actually come said the Blair government, it turned into more like 3 million.

As in the late 1950's, when the then government encouraged West Indians to migrate to Britain to fill a perceived shortage of workers, the 'need' was actually not likely there.

In the 1990's, the Army came up with an acronym MARILYN, which stood for manning and recruitment in the lean years of the 90's. Back then, the Army perceived that a falling birthrate would lead to a recruitment crisis.

The start of a new life or modern slavery?

When the Eastern Europeans came, many were from Poland and filled job gaps in the construction market.

Whilst many remembered the Polish contribution in 1940 to our war effort, the mood changed and ghettoes of migrants started to spring up, some companies reportedly became largely migrant employees only or were reportedly seen as taking all the jobs from British people.

The UKIP political party highlighted the situation that mass unchecked immigration would result in and this played a major factor in the Brexit vote going to the 'Out' supporters.

Within the recent Eastern European influx, other migrants from outside of the EU countries managed to get in and ended up in a more sinister scenario, prostitution and forced labour, essentially modern day slavery.

Often these people were students who outstayed their VISAs or came on visitor VISA's and just vanished into the Black Economy. 'Working on the black,' off the radar of tax, benefits, healthcare, basically existing and working illegally in Britain.

They are disenfranchised people and victims of an underclass that is trapped, cannot speak out and cannot escape.

Essentially this has created a situation of modern day slavery and in many cases, the victims of slavery are created so from people from their own countries who live in the UK legally. But white British people might be accused of racism for saying so. Even though that is the truth.

House overcrowding, up to 28 people in a suburban house

The reason why the illegals become trapped is that they often don't want to leave and want to stay in Britain, they get sucked into an underground population that is 'off the radar'.

Many businesses in the South East of England can only operate because they employ people on the fringes of society, likely unknowingly that the agencies supplying them are supplying illegal workers.

They likely rely on the agencies being apparently 'legit' in supplying 'legit' workers legally entitled to work in the UK. They may feel that as long as they satisfy the 'legal' requirements and only employ from agencies that 'guarantee' to supply 'legal' workers, that is all their oversight complete. They monitor and put in safeguards but people work the system.

Businesses need workers in order to operate. Every now and then some company or other is busted by the Immigration Service and a load of people deported.

The 'compliance' culture and industry is an over bureaucratic job creation scheme and does not address the plight of enslaved workers in the UK. What it was partly supposed to prevent! 

Migrant Workers without rights to be in the UK have little alternative than to go to bent employment agencies to survive.

Bent agencies will essentially supply migrant workers 'on the side', without any accreditation. The workers get paid less than legitimate workers, but they can't say anything or they might get beaten up or bubbled up to the immigration service and deported.

Because they have no right to remain, they just have to stay, keep quiet and keep out of trouble. Often in squalid and Dickensian conditions.

Many 'black economy' migrants have to live in garden sheds

House prices are so high in the South East of England that many indigenous people can't afford to take low paid jobs in the South East and live there too. Migrants in limbo, are often put into houses in these areas with up to 30 other workers and can fill the jobs that others just cannot afford to take. The Landlords having high occupancy can afford to own the houses.

These properties were not designed for this level of multiple occupancy.

When I saw the Eastern European influx 10 plus years ago, I said that there would be a Dickensian era type underclass situation to come and it has sadly been proven right.

One benefit of Brexit is that EU citizens can no longer just come to the UK. For those in the Calais camps waiting to come, the door has been shut, but they still want to get to the UK, even though they will never get legal citizenship.

I do feel sorry for these illegals here but they are after all, illegally here.