China could be about to reap a reverse Tsunami of partly its own making
Chances are that much of what you bought recently is made in China. That serves a number of purposes, it provides cheap goods, the ecology there isn't apparently your problem and their standard of living improves from the sort of disastrous Mao era situation as business between East and West thrives.
Rural and farm workers have been seduced away from the land to the cities
China's growth has its own problems that are now starting to impact. With the growth in manufacturing over the last 20 years, people have been seduced to move away from the rural areas to where the money is, in the towns and cities. Much has changed since the Mao era when it was said to be 'bourgeois to own a watch.'
That along with the one child policy, disastrous 'economic reforms' that let to millions of people starving and a continuing one child policy are situations still impacting China today. Over 100 million men will not have a female partner in the future, so what is the solution for them? And what impact on the viability of the nation?
Stubborn resistance cannot ultimately halt progress
The new wealth coming from the economy means that many Chinese are becoming aspirational and now able to see what life is like in the West. Thanks to the internet, where it is not censored by the state, then a new 'Middle class' is emerging, sweeping away old shanty towns and in their place modern steel and glass, all of which are now aspiring to a 'Western' diet of fast food.
Technology is driving wealth, but also at high human costs
Despite the growth in high technology, it has its downsides, beyond worker suicides in some plants, the toxic waste problems and automation. Yes, automation is now taking a toll in China.
After complaints about overwork, one factory owner installed robots instead of workers and now only employs a few humans to monitor the plant and machinery needs. Of course, he has by dint of this, increased his production manifold with reduced costs and defrayed human inefficiencies. Essentially 24 hour working from his 'workers.'
The toxic legacy of technology waste,
exporting this to China allows the West to say its 'not our problem.'
The processing of old technology in China is big business and recycling is one way of ensuring that valuable resources are not lost by burial in landfill.
Clean UK power is now being lost to power plant closure thanks to lunatic legislation,
but dirty power in Asia is continuing apace because it is seen as 'their problem.'
With China building record numbers of mainly coal burning power stations to feed energy needs, there are obvious problems with pollution.
The relentless production of Steel has created a glut of stock that the slowing Western economies cannot absorb or use. It is pointless to build new power stations that are not actually needed. Indeed, electricity consumption is a way of assessing economic activity.
China's relentless Steel production has created a glut of unwanted product
So how is this Tsunami going to hit China? In a number of ways. It has been caught short in some way. This is because it has transitioned from a less developed economy into a 'Western' level economy in a short time, although only in parts is it at 'Western' levels of development.
A surge of people away from the fields creates its own problems for the future, massive farming advances to feed a population more savvy to an improved diet with possibilities beyond a few generations ago is creating problems of future obesity, supply and likely adoption of GMO to meet future demands and that of 'Western' style fast food.
Chinese graduates are no longer immune to the high tech jobs not being available
Automation and robotics which is impacting the West is now impacting China far quicker. A situation where a few years ago it was an employees market with more jobs than people to fill them, which drove prices up as people did the formerly unheard of, touted to the highest bidder. Graduates as in the West are now no longer finding the jobs available that were perhaps there when they started studying.
Automation has now put the mockers on that and the Chinese workers like the West are all in the same Sampan now.
Over production of Steel is now a problem, with vast Steel stocks sitting waiting to be bought by customers who have less demand than of recent times.
The one child policy is now really hitting home, with a 1-2-4 ratio a reality, one child helping to support, two parents, four grandparents. Statistically, with girls born as second children, a one child policy means, you do the math. Less possible new people in the future and Chinese women are seeing possibilities beyond just being baby farmers.
Many Chinese men may have to do with finding solace in silicon, instead of a real partner
but at least they won't have to put up with an ugly or moody partner!
A knock on effect of the one child policy is that females are now seeing an alternative lifestyle to the traditional family scenario. For the single Chinese male of which there will be over 100 million without the possibility of a mate, solace in silicon may be the only answer.
Of course, on the reality of this, it means the reverse funnel of population is going to grow. Abandoning the one child policy now is too late, like the Chinese proverb, the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.
So all these factors are building up, China has blossomed and mushroomed in the last 60 years away form a totalitarian Communist party state into a more Western facing and developed country, but at a cost and a cost to come.
These costs are yet to be realised in their totality, in fact countries like Vietnam are becoming the 'new' China, developed, industrially capable and with less labour costs.
A Western company putting in its own tooling and guidance will lead to Vietnamese goods being made to Western standards, cheaper than China can.
This may lead to a trade war, with much dumping of product onto an already slow Western market. The rise of China has been like a tidal wave of Tsunamic proportions, however, it has peaked quickly in a changing age and risks collapsing in on itself, the forward wave losing forward momentum and back flipping over on itself.
